Business · 2026-10-15 · Afternoon briefing

US wholesale inflation surges to 6.3%, stoking Fed rate-hike bets

American wholesale prices jumped 6.3% year-on-year in September, the largest annual increase since December 2022. The producer price index also rose 1.3% for the month, more than double the 0.6% advance forecast by economists polled by Dow Jones. The annual figure substantially overshot expectations of 5.5%.

The surge was driven primarily by energy costs; the Bureau of Labor Statistics attributed nearly half the rise in processed goods to higher diesel fuel prices. The data lands alongside other signs of persistent inflation, including a higher-than-expected consumer price index reading of 3.7% and retail sales growth of 0.8%, which also beat forecasts.

The figures have altered expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders now see a 34% probability of an interest-rate hike at the central bank's October meeting, up from less than 18% a week prior. About 90% of traders now expect at least one more rate increase by the end of the year.

Summary written by Cup of News with AI from the sources below. Check the originals for the full story.

Read the sources

• Wholesale inflation jumped last month by most in four years as gas prices soared
• Wholesale inflation rises by most in 3 months ahead of Fed interest-rate decision
• US inflation rises below expectations in August, gives the Fed breathing space
• Wholesale prices jumped 6.3% annually in September, biggest gain since 2022
• Wholesale prices see a 6.3% annual jump in September, much higher than economists expected

More stories in this edition

1. Russian drone strike on central Kyiv injures seven
2. Russia claims refinery attack after Zelensky ends strike pause
3. Singaporean ship sinks in Strait of Hormuz after projectile strike
4. Former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson jailed for 15 years for child sex abuse
5. Heaviest rainfall in 84 years floods Istanbul, killing two
6. Global timekeepers vote to scrap the leap second
7. Global AI stock sell-off wipes $1 trillion from valuations
8. Japan: G20 flags risks from bond yields, currency swings
9. Pig kidneys revived after year-long cryopreservation at -150°C

Read the whole edition