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Environment · 2026-11-02 · Afternoon briefing

UN report: 1.5°C overshoot will cause permanent ice loss

A report from 80 scientists backed by the UN has dismissed the "persistent myth" that temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C global warming target is manageable. With the planet already 1.3°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, the authors argue any overshoot will cause irreversible damage to the cryosphere. They state that long-term warming must be brought back below 1.0°C by 2150 to secure polar ice sheets.

The ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are already melting six times faster than in the 1990s. Under current policies, which project 2.8°C of warming, glacier mass in the Alps and Rockies would fall below 10% of current levels. In the Hindu Kush Himalayas, a water source for nearly a quarter of humanity, only 41% of ice would remain, compared with 83% if warming is limited to 1.5°C.

The effects are already measurable: Switzerland has lost 20% of its glacier ice in the past five years alone. The report, from the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, concludes that while ice melts in response to every fraction of a degree, recovery will take centuries or millennia.

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