Environment · 2026-11-03 · Afternoon briefing

2026 on track to be warmest year, with 2027 set to be hotter still

It is now virtually certain that 2026 will be either the warmest or second-warmest year on record. Analysis by Carbon Brief gives the year a 67% chance of surpassing 2024’s record, projecting a final temperature around 1.52C above pre-industrial levels. The heat is driven by a powerful El Niño climate pattern amplifying underlying global warming, which produced the warmest August on record and the second-warmest September.

The current El Niño is forecast to be the strongest ever recorded, peaking at around 4C this winter—more than 1C above the previous record. Its effects are widespread: 22% of the planet’s surface, including the western Mediterranean, experienced its hottest July-to-September period. Western Europe recorded its hottest summer, while Spain’s September shattered its previous record by 0.7C.

The full thermal impact of this event is expected to manifest next year. Projections for 2027 forecast an average global temperature of 1.7C above pre-industrial levels, with a 96% probability that it will eclipse both 2026 and 2024 to become the new warmest year in the instrumental record.

Summary written by Cup of News with AI from the sources below. Check the originals for the full story.

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• This October is on track to be the hottest ever recorded
• Earth is on track for the hottest year on record - as Super El Niño could send temperatures soaring
• NCEI: Summer 2026 was the warmest on record for the United States
• Summer 2026 was Arizona's warmest on record. Did El Niño play a role?

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